The Wagner Group is a paramilitary organization that operates as an arm of Russian foreign policy rather than an independent entity. They have been involved in various operations, including providing security and training in Mali and Sudan. Recent tensions arose between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense, leading to the exile of the group’s leader, Prigozhin, to Belarus. However, it is uncertain what will happen to the remaining mercenaries under Wagner’s command. Speculations about redeploying them to attack Kyiv on the southern border of Belarus remain, but it is unlikely without strong logistical support.
President Putin’s next moves are uncertain, but he has a long history of consolidating power and suppressing dissent. If he perceives a threat to his authority, he may initiate a purge within the security agencies. However, discussions and negotiations with Prigozhin indicate that there may be potential for leveraging Western pressure by supplying weapons, including air power, to Ukraine. Currently, the risk of nuclear weapons being used is low, although some weapons have been sent to Belarus, immediate use is unlikely. The indicator to monitor would be a significant shift in the Russian army’s behavior, which could imply increased nuclear threat.